Taxing e-cigarettes like cigarettes was supposed to protect kids. New research suggests it may be doing the opposite.
A study by Jason Semprini, PhD, assistant professor of public health at Des Moines University Medicine and Health Sciences published 23 September 2026 in the International Journal of Drug Policy asked a question nobody had asked before: what happens to children when states raise e-cigarette taxes?
The finding
Pursuing “tax parity” — imposing equivalent taxes and restrictions on cigarettes and alternative nicotine products appears to push some adults back toward smoking. Specifically, a $1 increase in e-cigarette (ENDS) taxes increased the likelihood that a child was exposed to cigarette smoking in the home by 16%.
The effect showed up only in households with lower levels of educational attainment consistent with the regressive nature of sin taxes, which bite hardest on lower-income families.
“Smoking doesn’t just harm the smoker,” Semprini said. “Secondhand smoke has terrible consequences, especially for children, but no one had yet considered how these ENDS taxes might impact exposure to secondhand smoke among children.”
Why it happens
Cigarettes and non-combustible nicotine products carry very different risk levels. When taxes erase the price gap between them, the financial incentive to stay off combustibles disappears and some users drift back. Previous health-economics research had already shown ENDS taxes increase cigarette smoking overall; this study traces the consequence one step further, into children’s lungs. A parent smoking in the home is also a major predictor of future smoking behavior in kids.
The UK timing couldn’t be sharper
The finding lands the day after the UK’s £2.20-per-10ml Vaping Products Duty took effect on 1 October 2026 a flat tax that applies regardless of nicotine strength and hits shortfill users hardest. For the full breakdown of what vapers actually pay now, see our complete vape juice price guide.
The policy lesson: taxes designed to discourage vaping can, perversely, encourage smoking and children absorb the cost.
Source: River Cities’ Reader